The Hardest Part to Grasp: Bitcoin’s Growth Trajectory
Why your modest Bitcoin retirement account might be more powerful than it seems
If you’ve been saving for retirement the traditional way—stocks, bonds, mutual funds—it can be almost impossible to wrap your head around what Bitcoin might mean for your financial future.
Especially if you’ve recently begun stacking sats, it’s easy to look at your Bitcoin IRA or brokerage balance and feel discouraged. Maybe you’ve got half a coin, or a few thousand dollars’ worth. How could that ever fund a comfortable retirement?
But this line of thinking misses something fundamental: Bitcoin doesn’t grow like traditional assets. Its past defies conventional expectations, and its potential future—if you believe in its thesis—might be even more dramatic.
Understanding this growth requires a shift in mindset. Let’s explore how difficult that mental leap really is, and then walk through several ways to model Bitcoin’s trajectory, both historically and forward-looking.
Bitcoin’s Historical Growth: A Mind-Bending Ride
First, let’s ground ourselves in the raw data. The numbers alone are almost mythological.
Bitcoin in July 2010: ~$0.06 per coin
Bitcoin in June 2025: ~$105,000 per coin
That’s a 1.75 million-fold increase in just under 15 years. But such an extraordinary number is difficult to internalize. More usefully, we can look at the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over various timeframes.
Bitcoin’s CAGR Over Time (Approximate):
Even in more recent years, as the asset matures and volatility softens, Bitcoin still posts astonishing gains that crush every traditional asset class.
Yet because humans tend to think linearly, not exponentially, we severely underestimate what this might mean moving forward.
Modeling Bitcoin’s Future: Three Useful Frameworks
Let’s look at three different lenses that help frame where Bitcoin might be going next. Each has its critics and limitations, but together they tell a compelling story.
1. The Technology Adoption Curve
The most established model comes from the world of disruptive technologies. Every major innovation—from electricity to the internet—has followed an S-shaped adoption curve:
Innovators (2.5%)
Early Adopters (13.5%)
Early Majority (34%)
Late Majority (34%)
Laggards (16%)
Bitcoin is arguably in the early-to-mid phase of early adoption. Estimates suggest global ownership is still well under 5%. If that’s true, we’re not even halfway up the steepest part of the S-curve.
As Bitcoin continues to be adopted—by individuals, institutions, and eventually governments—the price must rise to accommodate that demand, especially since the supply is capped at 21 million.
2. The Stock-to-Flow Model
Made famous by PlanB, this model borrows from commodities pricing. Stock-to-flow measures the ratio of existing supply (“stock”) to annual production (“flow”).
Gold has a high S2F (~62), meaning it would take 62 years of mining to double current supply.
Bitcoin’s S2F is currently around 56, and will double every four years due to halving events.
The model predicted the 2017 and 2021 bull runs with surprising accuracy. While it has faced criticism for over-predicting in recent years, it remains a compelling framework for understanding how Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity may translate into price appreciation.
According to the classic S2F curve, Bitcoin could hit $250k–$1M before 2030, especially as more fiat currency is printed to cover ballooning sovereign debt worldwide.
3. The Power Law Curve (My Favorite)
Unlike the S-curve or S2F, which look at Bitcoin from outside (adoption and scarcity), the Power Law Curve looks within: how Bitcoin behaves as a network.
This idea, which I’ve written about before, follows Metcalfe’s Law—the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of users. Bitcoin’s value isn’t just monetary—it’s a function of the connections formed between nodes, users, miners, developers, and holders.
When plotted logarithmically, Bitcoin’s price appears to move within a predictable channel that respects this power law.
Even after massive crashes (e.g., 2013, 2018, 2022), Bitcoin has always bounced back within the lower bound of the power curve. The upper bound suggests $1M+ Bitcoin is not only possible, but probable within 10–15 years—if the network keeps growing and the protocol remains secure.
Why This Matters for Retirement Planning
Let’s say you have just 1 BTC in your retirement account. At today’s price (~$105,000), that might feel like a small portion of your overall portfolio—especially if you’re retiring soon.
But here’s the hard truth that’s also a hopeful truth:
You’re early.
If Bitcoin follows any of the models above—even the most conservative versions—then 1 BTC could potentially be worth $500,000 to $5,000,000 within a decade.
Even half a coin might give you a financial cushion or the generational legacy that stocks and bonds simply can’t match without decades of compounding.
And if Bitcoin hits those numbers sooner? You might find yourself revising your whole retirement timeline.
The Mental Leap
The hardest part of understanding Bitcoin isn’t the technology.
It’s grasping the magnitude of the shift we’re living through.
Bitcoin is money that grows according to digital network effects, scarcity, and a global movement toward self-sovereignty. That growth won’t look like anything we’ve seen before—especially for those measuring their wealth in fiat.
So if you’re staring at your modest Bitcoin balance today and wondering whether it’s worth it…
Stay humble. Stack sats.
You might be closer to financial freedom than you think.
Not financial or legal advice, for entertainment only, do your own homework. I hope you find this post useful as you chart your personal financial course and Build a Bitcoin Fortress in 2025.
Thanks for following my work. Always remember: freedom, health and positivity!
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