The Cyclical Unraveling of Societal Institutions and the Rise of Authoritarianism

A Reflection on Recent Events

The recent student protests supporting Hamas at colleges across the United States provide a vivid illustration of the cyclical unraveling of societal institutions, a concept extensively discussed in Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning." These events, marked by chaos and intermittent violence, echo the disturbances last seen during the Black Lives Matter protests amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Although currently less severe, these demonstrations share a similar pattern of civil unrest that triggers an authoritarian response, initially manifested through law enforcement.

The Escalation of Authoritarian Measures

As violence becomes a recurring element in protests, society's demand for "law and order" intensifies. This demand catalyzes a broader authoritarian response, not only through immediate physical enforcement but also through more insidious means such as the suppression of free speech. Authorities and institutions begin to redefine acceptable speech, often in the guise of maintaining public order. This redefinition restricts the ability to express dissent without risking legal or social repercussions, thereby stifling essential democratic freedoms - most importantly freedom of speech. The US Senate and the House of Representatives have already introduced legislation in 2023 along these lines and the House recently passed a bill purportedly designed to address antisemitism and sent along to the Senate just last week, amid freedom of speech concerns.

The Impact on Digital Freedom and Bitcoin

This trend towards authoritarianism is not limited to the control of physical spaces and speech but extends into the digital realm, particularly concerning the sovereignty of Bitcoin usage. Recent actions against unhosted wallet providers and coin mixers like Samourai Wallet, which I discussed extensively on last week’s podcast, underscore this point. These services are crucial for dissidents combating authoritarian regimes, providing them with the means to sustain their activism without governmental interference in their financial transactions.

The crackdown on these digital services reveals a worrying pattern: governments are increasingly intent on controlling all aspects of their citizens' lives, including their financial transactions. This control is often justified by the need to combat illicit activities (the usual suspects, terrorism, human trafficking, drugs, other criminal activity, etc.) but invariably ends up curtailing the freedoms of ordinary citizens and activists alike.

Societal Deterioration and the Demand for Security

As societal institutions continue to unravel under the strain of repeated cycles of unrest and authoritarian clampdown, the public's clamor for security grows. This demand leads governments to expand their reach, often at the cost of individual freedoms. This cycle of security and control continues until it reaches a tipping point, where the overreach becomes too oppressive, prompting a pushback from the populace.

The Pendulum Swings Back

History shows that societal cycles are indeed pendular. The current trend toward authoritarianism and control, driven by societal fear and the demand for order, will eventually lead to its opposite. The public, growing weary of the trade-off between safety and freedom, will likely reclaim their liberties, pushing the pendulum back toward freedom. This swing is critical, especially in places like the United States, where individual freedoms are constitutionally enshrined but have been eroding under successive legislative actions, as I discussed here:

The Path Forward

To navigate these turbulent times, it is imperative for us to adopt a more reasoned, calm, and moderate approach to societal challenges. Rather than succumbing to polarizing extremes, engaging in constructive dialogue and seeking common ground can help address the issues without further contributing to the cycle of unrest and repression. In other words, we really need to apply critical thinking as a filter to what’s happening around us. And we also need to stop screaming at each other:

When I went to college, there were many different views on political and societal issues and we often had robust debates in and out of the classroom without fear of retribution of any kind (i.e., getting “cancelled” or bad grades, which is prevalent today). Sometimes we had to agree to disagree, but we could still share a pitcher of beer after these conversations with no hard feelings. The stunning decline of the university is well-documented by Ben Hunt in this article - TLDR, the university is compared to the medieval church and while industrially necessary, suffers from intellectual rot from within and needs fundamental reform.

Maintaining a focus on both digital and physical freedom is essential, ensuring that in the cyclical process of societal decay and renewal, our fundamental rights and freedoms remain safeguarded. This will be a rough ride, so I like to say “hope for the best and prepare for the worst” and most importantly, have a resilient mindset like I discussed here:

In conclusion, as we witness the cyclical unraveling of societal norms and institutions, it is vital to stay vigilant about our individual freedoms. Ensuring that the pendulum does not swing too far into authoritarianism will be crucial for fostering a resilient society that can adapt and thrive amidst these recurring cycles. Applying critical thinking and being reasonable will help too.

Not financial or legal advice, for entertainment only, do your own homework.  I hope you find this post useful as you chart your personal financial course and Build a Bitcoin Fortress in 2024.    

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